Forward Intelligence
OPEC+’s 11m b/d March production collapse
Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
The illusion of supply: Rethinking energy security when oil cannot move
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
The global offshore bonanza
Offshore operators are working through an FID backlog as the rig market consolidates, helped by improving project economics and a renewed security drive
In pipelines we trust
The addition of an oil pipeline to the Power of Siberia 2 gas project could ensure deliveries of Russian oil to China, materially shorten logistics lines between West Siberia and final customers, and—amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—offer a land-based export route that reduces exposure to maritime chokepoints
Middle East oil’s multi-step recovery plan
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
Gas growth cools in 2025
The GECF has warned it may revise its projections for demand this year downwards in light of conflict in the Middle East, although it maintains its forecasts for 2027 and onwards
The gas must flow: GECF warns on need to invest in supply
Gas association says $11.6t should be invested in upstream through 2055, with conventional projects in the Middle East, Eurasia and Africa driving supply growth to meet rising demand
African gas can double if projects deliver
The continent’s vast natural resources could lift its share of global supply to 9%, but delays to a handful of large, capital-intensive LNG and offshore projects risk slowing the pace of expansion
Is this nuclear power’s big moment?
The Middle East energy crisis may turn out to be pivotal to the industry’s long-term expansion, but significant challenges still stand in its way
Decoding datacentre energy demand
Datacentres will guzzle power at a ferocious rate, but the impact on wider energy markets will be far more complex than previously thought
In Depth
OPEC and the evolving global oil order
The UAE’s exit from the alliance marks a decisive step towards a world in which oil markets are shaped less by collective management and more by national strategy
Why the UAE decided to quit OPEC
The UAE’s departure from the oil producers’ group was a surprise to many, but the move can be traced back to a single point five years ago
OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
UAE’s OPEC withdrawal: Strategic shift or economic recalibration?
The decision appears driven by economic priorities and long-term planning rather than an attempt at geopolitical escalation
OPEC: Obituary or reincarnation?
The group’s continual evolution is not a series of desperate acts by a geopolitical institution trying to stay relevant but part of a necessary oil market design feature
OPEC-Permian dynamic may enter new era
The UAE’s departure from OPEC after the Iran conflict could tilt the influence over the market towards US shale producers
Letters
Letter from the US: This crisis is different
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
Letter from Europe: Energy transition meets reality
The continent is seeing political pushback to climate plans, corporate reassessment of transition goals and rising supply risk in a fractured global order
Letter from Europe: Do not waste a good crisis, again
The dangers of replacing one energy security risk with another are all too familiar
Letter from the UAE: The GCC and Iran – No easy way out
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
Letter from Iran: Nuclear miscalculation
The regime’s policy of using nuclear ambiguity as a deterrent may have failed but it has realised it has other cards to play, while its neighbours are reappraising their approach to security
Letter from Iraq: Ali al-Zaidi – a placeholder, or a real prime minister?
Iraq’s prime minister designate appears to offer more of the same, but without reform the stability and integrity of the oil and gas sector may be under threat
Letter on Africa: Cutting methane can ease Africa’s energy crunch
The continent has an immediate opportunity to make the most of its energy resources by capturing gas that is currently slipping away
Americas
Canada’s oil and gas looks east
There is a clear push to bolster exports to Asia amid uncertainty around its North American neighbour, but there are limits to the benefits from the energy crisis
Venezuela faces long road to rebuild oil production
Chevron’s agreement to boost output is a positive sign, but there is much more work to do for a national recovery
Argentina’s upstream surge catches the attention of US shale
E&Ps are increasingly looking to the Vaca Muerta as regulatory certainty, high oil prices, growth opportunities and imminent midstream additions boost the investment landscape
Asia Pacific
Eni scales up in Kutei
The latest gas discovery adds momentum to Eni’s push in Indonesia’s Kutei Basin, as it presses ahead with its fast-track development model aided by collaboration with Petronas
EMEA
The EU’s electric dreams
The European Commission’s response to the Middle East crisis is to double down on its transition strategy, with plans for a new target on electrification
EU policy versus market reality
Mounting supply risk will test the EU’s resolve to do away with Russian gas
The UK’s problematic power price
Expensive electricity has forced out swathes of energy-intensive industry and now threatens the country’s ability to attract future investment in datacentres and the digital economy
High hopes and dry wells in the Black Sea
The failure of OMV Petrom’s keenly watched exploration campaign at Bulgaria’s Han Asparuh block highlights the Black Sea’s uneven track record, despite major successes like Neptun Deep and Sakarya
Drone power: Ukraine escalates its war on Russian oil
Sustained strikes on ports, terminals and refineries are testing the resilience of Russia’s oil export system, yet rapid repairs, rerouting and surging prices mean the campaign has yet to deliver a decisive blow
Turkey’s gas bridge under threat
The country plays a vital role in connecting Asia to Europe, but the expiration of Russian contracts and the ramifications of the war in Iran are placing it under pressure
Galkynysh goes fourth
Turkmenistan is moving ahead with a modest expansion of the giant Galkynysh field to sustain gas deliveries abroad, but persistent delays to other key pipeline projects and geopolitical risks continue to constrain its export ambitions
Iraq’s pipeline dilemma
The key energy player faces balancing regional routes, political complexities, and creating a clear strategic vision for energy security
Eni and BP score big in Egypt
A major new discovery by Eni and BP that can likely be fast-tracked to production is welcome news for Egypt as it scrambles to plug a widening supply gap and deal with rising import risks
Can Merlin work magic for Shell in Namibia?
Shell made the play-opening discovery in Namibia’s Orange basin back in 2022, but its next well could decide whether the project can actually be commercialised
Billion-dollar deal sees Gabon swap barrels for instant cash
Trafigura’s $1b prepayment agreement confirms African resource holders’ renewed interest in oil-backed financing deals as they look to capitalise on high oil prices
Digital Exclusives
Algihaz: Bridging conventional energy and the renewable transition
As the global energy system undergoes a fundamental realignment, Algihaz Holdings has established itself as a critical player bridging conventional energy markets and the next generation of renewable infrastructure.
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