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Non-Opec pushes output higher

Oil supply rose by 0.58m b/d in July, to 82.86m b/d, says the IEA. Around two-thirds of the rise was from non-Opec countries and the remainder from Opec-produced NGLs. World output is around 3.3% down from its July 2008 level, mainly because of Opec's output cuts. The cartel meets in Vienna on 9 September, but with oil prices apparently stabilising around $70/b further cuts are unlikely.

As a result, the IEA has revised upwards its non-Opec supply forecast for 2009 by 160,000 b/d, to 51.0m b/d; this is expected to increase by another 440,000 b/d in 2010, to 51.4m b/d, largely because of growth in Russian and US Gulf of Mexico output and NGLs production, and from the accelerated start-up of mining operations in the Canadian oil sands.

Opec output was down by 110,000 b/d in July, to 28.64m b/d, with reduced production from Nigeria accounting for about 40% of the decline. Nigerian output is at its lowest level in more than 20 years, constrained by conflict in the Niger delta and technical problems at several fields. Angolan output has also suffered from technical problems, but production is set to rise with the imminent start-up of two Chevron-operated projects, Mafumeira Norte and Tombua Landana.

Production by the 11 Opec members with output targets, which excludes Iraq, was down by 130,000 b/d compared with June, to 26.12m b/d. The July figure means the group is now producing about 1.28m b/d over its 24.845m b/d output target – a rate of compliance with its targeted cuts of 69%.

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