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Non-Opec increases boost supply as Opec output holds steady

World supply rose by 0.745m b/d in January to 87.2m b/d, according to the IEA. New output from Brazil and assumed recovery in Azerbaijan, China and Mexico, after December outages, were behind the significant monthly rise.

But while non-Opec production was up substantially, Opec output was unchanged from December, at 32.0m b/d. Angola, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait increased supplies, but lower volumes from Iraq, Nigeria and Qatar offset these gains. The IEA claims the cartel's spare capacity was 2.4m b/d in January. But in February, Nigerian outages rose to 0.7m b/d, it said. And, at press-time, other analysts were estimating Nigerian shut-ins at almost 1m b/d.

The IEA has revised down its forecast for global oil-products demand by 200,000 b/d to 87.6m b/d in 2008. During the same year, Opec's installed production capacity is expected to rise by 0.8m b/d, mainly thanks to Saudi Arabia and Angola (see p4). Aramco claims it is on track to expand capacity by around 3m b/d to 12m b/d by 2009, enabling it to maintain spare capacity of 1.5m-2m b/d (see p27). Angola, meanwhile, remains in expansion mode: the country's capacity was expected to reach its 1.9m b/d Opec quota by last month; production could rise to 2.1m b/d by the end of this year, to nearly 2.3m b/d by the end of 2009 and to as much as 2.5m b/d in 2011.

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