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The end of an era
The glory days of Russian oil-production growth are over. Re-nationalisation and a harmful oil-tax regime are taking their toll, writes NJ Watson.
RUSSIAN OIL production rose by 2.4% in 2005 from the year before, hitting 470m tonnes (9.4m barrels a day). Although output was the highest since 1991, the miserable rate of growth is a far cry from the average of 8.5% achieved each year from 2000 to 2004. According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera), Russian oil production from 1999 to 2004 accounted for 47% of total world supply growth (see Figure 1). However, since September 2004, Russia's contribution to monthly growth has dropped to little more than zero. Few expect this state of affairs to change soon. The energy ministry forecasts output will rise by 1.9-3.0%, to 479m-484m tonnes this year, while the director of the federal energy agency (FEA), Sergei Oganesian, claims annual output growth over the next two to three years will amount to 1-2%. "The outlook now is for 3-5% growth at ...Click here to continue reading The end of an era
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