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Oil market out of balance despite rising demand

Despite falling non-Opec supply and rising demand, the market still has a way to go

The North American rig count is trending lower again, global oil demand is gathering steam and the US’ Federal Reserve on 17 September decided not to lift interest rates. Ordinarily, each of these would be bullish for oil, yet crude markets in September remained depressed. On 22 September, Brent was down 11% on its end-August high, at $48.45/barrel.Opec is one reason. Its lynchpin Saudi Arabia has resolutely resisted pleas from Algeria and others for an emergency meeting. Non-Opec output is struggling and after years of stagnation the call on Opec’s crude is rising. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has added 200,000 b/d to the estimated call for the rest of this year and predicts it wil

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