Related Articles
Forward article link
Share PDF with colleagues

Demand growth weak and production on the rise

Geopolitics has lost its impact on the market and the fundamentals are bearish

Global oil demand growth has weakened and supplies continue to rise. Contango in the forward curve is persuading traders to buy now, too, pushing inventories higher. These are bearish fundamentals and the market has responded. Brent, trading at around $96 a barrel as Petroleum Economist went to press, is now $20 cheaper than it was in June. Sentiment in the market, not least sharp cut in long positions by speculators, suggests it could fall further. That old stalwart of the bulls, geopolitics - code for war in the Middle East - has lost its market force. Despite the terrorism plaguing northern Iraq, and renewed Western military engagement to repel it, exports from the big southern oilfields

Also in this section
Trump's spectre looms over tense Opec meeting
19 June 2018
Russia and Saudi Arabia plan to raise supply. The move will please the US but make for a rocky summit this week
Is Russia edging towards the Opec exit?
21 May 2018
Russian output remains much higher than the level it agreed to in December 2016 and producers have big expansion plans
Oil goes into the red zone
21 May 2018
The market is primed for another price rally. The industry needs to update its outlook