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Global oil supply falls along with non-Opec production

The global supply fell month-by-month to 91.2 million b/d in May, but remains strong year-on-year

Global oil supplies fell by 90,000 b/d month-on-month, to 91.2 million b/d in May, as higher Opec production failed to offset a fall in non-Opec output.

Global supply, though, increased 180,000 b/d year-on-year. Opec natural gas-to-liquids output and non-Opec supply helped make up for an 810,000 b/d decline in Opec crude output.

Non-Opec supply fell 230,000 b/d in May from the previous month to 53.8m b/d because of maintenance in Canada, which offset production gains elsewhere.

The IEA said summer maintenance in the North Sea could cut more production this year than the typical 260,000 b/d that is lost for the period. The IEA expects seasonal maintenance to cut North Sea oil supplies from 3m b/d in the first quarter of 2013 to 2.6m b/d in the third quarter of 2013.

The IEA’s forecast for non-Opec supply growth is unchanged from its previous prediction of 1.1m b/d for 2013.

Opec crude oil production rose to 30.89m b/d in May, which was a seven-month high. This was up 135,000 b/d from April.

Increased output from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait was partially offset by reduced supplies from Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. The IEA said it expects the "call on Opec" crude to be 29.8m b/d in the second half of 2013, 200,000 b/d lower than previously expected, because of lower demand. Opec rolled over its 30m b/d production ceiling at its 31 May meeting in Vienna. Several member countries raised concerns about Opec potentially losing market share because of rapidly rising US shale-oil production.

The seasonal ramp-up in global refining throughputs is expected to be higher than usual this year, the IEA said, with runs increasing by 2.2m b/d from the second to the third quarter of 2013. This will be driven by new Saudi distillation capacity, increased Chinese runs after heavy spring maintenance, and recovering throughput at Venezuela’s Amuay plant after a fire last year knocked out much of the facility’s capacity.

OECD commercial oil stocks increased by 16.7m barrels in April, to 2.7bn barrels, the IEA said. And initial data suggests total oil stocks increased by a further 11.1m barrels in May.

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