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Russian supply vs production

Extending the deal with Opec is the only barrier to oil-output growth in 2017. But Russian exports should keep rising whatever is decided in Vienna

Despite financial and technological sanctions, lower oil prices and the depletion of mature fields, Russian oil firms lifted output in 2016 by 2.6%, to 11m barrels a day—within touching distance of the Soviet-era high. This year, the only real obstacle to further growth is not found beneath the soil, but above it: an extension of the deal with Opec to restrain supply. Either way, exports will remain strong. The agreement struck last year involved energy minister Alexander Novak pledging a 300,000-b/d cut from Russia. It prompted some scepticism—not least about the government's ability to enforce this on Russia's producers: private companies produce 40% of the country's oil but no legal meth

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