Related Articles
Forward article link
Share PDF with colleagues

A tale of two forecasts

Both the IEA and Opec agree global oil demand will increase in 2017. Supplies are trickier to figure out

While neither the International Energy Agency (IEA) nor Opec proved particularly successful at forecasting oil supply and demand trends in 2016 they agree on two things: economic growth will drive global oil consumption higher in 2017 and the call on Opec is increasing. Now Opec has agreed a deal to curb output by 1.2m barrels a day from January, so if the agencies are right the market will tighten. Both Opec and the IEA expect global economic growth to average around 3% in 2017, roughly in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s estimate for 2016. That will yield oil-consumption growth of 1.2m b/d, about the same as in 2016. But in absolute terms, their baselines still differ. Th

Also in this section
Cracks in the US shale recovery?
27 July 2017
Oil bulls shouldn't get too excited about those capex cuts yet
Gulf members try to shore up Opec's credibility
26 July 2017
But a pathway out of the cuts is still not clear
Companies are deciding to invest again, but can the other projects compete with US tight oil?
25 July 2017
Despite an increase in new projects sanctioned this year, shale still poses a threat