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Opec deal would bring subtle shift in market share

If the group delivers on its pledge at the November meeting, some members will lose more than others

If Opec formalises its provisional agreement to limit oil output to a maximum of 33m barrels a day it will force a shift in the group's internal make-up, as well as individual members' percentage of global crude demand.

In Q4 2016, global oil demand is expected to rise by 200,000 b/d from Q3 levels, reaching 97m b/d, according to the IEA, before then returning to 96.8m b/d in Q1 next year.

Average Opec production was 33.02m b/d in Q3. Barclays estimates group-wide output will increase in Q4 to meet the anticipated rise in global demand, reaching 33.04m b/d, before dropping down to 33.01m b/d at the beginning of next year. If this happens the group's share of the market will remain at around 34% between now and Q1 2017, analysis of IEA and Barclays data show, but there will be shifts in the group's internal and global market share.

Saudi Arabia's output could drop by around 200,000 b/d in Q4, to 10.3m b/d and would likely remain at that level into Q1 next year, according to Barclays. If this happened the kingdom's share of Opec output would fall from 31.95% in Q3 this year to just over 31% in both Q4 and Q1 2017. Its share of the global crude market would slip from 11% to around 10.5%.

Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela will also all surrender market share, both within Opec and as part of the global total, between now and the beginning of 2017.Only Iran, Libya and Nigeria are expected to increase output. Gabon's and Indonesia's production would remain the same.

After losses from pipeline attacks, Nigerian output is expected to rebound as exports resume from the 330,000-b/d Qua Iboe system and the 200,000-b/d Forcados terminal, where repair work was completed in September.

Subtle shifts: Opec members's market share within the group (%). Source: Barclays, Petroleum Economist analysis
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