Related Articles
Forward article link
Share PDF with colleagues

Oil-market forecasting: A thankless task

Supply and demand are behaving in ways the IEA did not previously expect

If only Benjamin Franklin had lived to see today’s oil market. Nothing is certain in life but death and taxes, the great man said. These days, he might have included revisions to oil-demand and supply forecasts. In 2010, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned consumers that “the age of cheap oil is over”, saying "a veil of uncertainty" was hanging over global energy security because of rampant oil demand and flagging production. In its latest Medium Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR), which offers up the agency’s thoughts about supply and demand from now to 2021, the message is the opposite: brace yourselves for a lengthy period of low prices. Future supply constraints? Not so much. Don

Also in this section
Peak demand and oil's long-term trap
19 January 2018
Fixating on the timing of a peak in oil demand is misplaced. Rather, the peak's significance is in shifting the paradigm, from perceived scarcity to perceived abundance. And it poses a problem for low-cost producers
The end is nigh for oil
12 January 2018
Fossil fuel merchants including oil companies are living on borrowed time, argues a new book
US energy: what to watch in 2018
3 January 2018
Oil production, trade, renewables and technology top our list of major questions facing America's energy industry heading into the new year