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2011: The year of the dragon

OIL PRICES above $100 a barrel are unsustainable. But a market once again gripped with speculative fever will test this psychological barrier in 2011. A battle between bulls and bears will be one of the themes of the year

The usual suspects will play their part. Goldman Sachs has got in early, already predicting a three-digit crude price next year. Other investment banks, holding big positions in the oil market, will be similarly bullish. As Western economies edge towards health, this will support equity markets and, therefore, commodity-market sentiment, too. So, in the coming months, will the dollar's persistent weakness: low interest rates and the second slug of quantitative easing are two downward forces on the currency that will be around for a while. But a recovery in the euro, as the EU acts to protect the eurozone, will reinforce the dollar's decline. Bears will be rewarded later in 2011, when it bec

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