Sowing the seeds of demand destruction
14 February 2012
With Brent trading at an 18-month high, the oil market’s bulls appear to have good reasons to celebrate. But the long-term outlook is far more troubling. A steep correction is on the cards, writes Derek Brower
Talk about irrational exuberance. One minute Greece agrees to more austerity and the next minute global equity, bond and commodity markets react as if the Eurozone has found a way out of debt and the global economy will resume its pre-crisis march towards everlasting prosperity.
Never mind the violent reaction on the streets of Athens or that, with elections looming in Greece, the country’s public could yet wreck the best-laid plans of the Eurozone’s political masters. With central banks continuing to inflate the bubble – the UK pumped another £50 billion ($78.7 billion) of electronic money last week into financial markets – traders are more than willing to keep the party going.
For the past week, Brent crude futures have been hovering at around $118 a barrel, their highest level in more than six months – a gravity-defying act of bravado that, were it not so costly to the...