WITH little respect for the forecasts of foreign analysts, Libya’s oil industry is kicking into gear again, bringing production back on stream far more quickly than expected. Just two months ago, oil-industry experts claimed war had severely damaged infrastructure and even some oil wells. A report from the Reuters news agency on 5 October even claimed the Elephant oilfield, one of the country’s largest, "lay in ruins".
That report, which baffled industry insiders and those with knowledge of the field, was a high-water mark of gloomy news about Libya’s oil sector. Even before Tripoli fell to the National Transitional Council (NTC) in late August, analysts had bad news for the oil market about Libya’s recovery. Experts, from Wood Mackenzie to IHS Global Insight, suggested pre-war output wouldn’t be reached for up to three years.
Now the prevailing story is about how production is growing –...